# A morbid Python script

Comics #493 and #893 involve actuarial tables, which are tables for calculating the probability that someone of a given age will die within a given amount of time.

One evening, when I was feeling morbid, I wrote a Python script to calculate death probabilities for any collection of people: actuary.py (.txt). It takes a list of ages and genders and produces various statistics. Here’s the report for the nine living people who have walked on the moon:

```~\$ python actuary.py 81m 82m 80m 81m 80m 81m 76m 78m 77m
There is a 5% chance of someone dying within 0.08 years (by 2012).
There is a 50% chance of someone dying within 1.1 years (by 2013).
There is a 95% chance of someone dying within 4.08 years (by 2016).

There is a 5% chance of everyone dying within 10.78 years (by 2023).
There is a 50% chance of everyone dying within 16.12 years (by 2028).
There is a 95% chance of everyone dying within 22.57 years (by 2035).

Probability of all dying in 1.0 year: <0.001%
Probability of a death within 1.0 year: 46.32%```

And here’s the table for four of the main stars of the original Star Wars (Harrison Ford, Carrie Fisher, Mark Hammill, James Earl Jones):

```~\$ python actuary.py 69m 55f 60m 81m 10
There is a 5%  chance of someone dying within 0.42 years (by 2012).
There is a 50% chance of someone dying within 4.74 years (by 2017).
There is a 95% chance of someone dying within 12.83 years (by 2025).

There is a 5%  chance of everyone dying within 18.17 years (by 2030).
There is a 50% chance of everyone dying within 31.28 years (by 2043).
There is a 95% chance of everyone dying within 42.62 years (by 2055).

Probability of all dying in 10.0 years:   0.272%
Probability of a death within 10.0 years: 85.94%```

Of course, these are based on average death rates based only on age and gender. Adding more specific information about the people in question will refine the calculation. For example, I’d guess former astronauts are more likely to be in good health—and have longer life expectancies—than the rest of us.

## 382 thoughts on “A morbid Python script”

1. Python runs on Windows, Linux/Unix, Mac OS X, and has been ported to the Java and .NET virtual machines.
Python is free to use, even for commercial products, because of its OSI-approved open source license.
New to Python or choosing between Python 2 and Python 3? Read Python 2 or Python 3.

Like

2. Very good.

Like

3. What is the Python scripting language Vhmrah how an application is made?

Like

4. Ciao, io amo la lettura attraverso il tuo blog, ho voluto lasciare un piccolo commento per sostenere voi e vi auguro una buona continuazione. Vi auguro buona fortuna per tutti i vostri sforzi blogging.

Like

5. Your site is very useful in the field of scientific information made available to me. Certain websites are best Mkanbray exchange. Sites of this type of site you area

Like

6. Thank you very much., You are a good writer.
In addition to art that will give you good
I congratulate you

Like

7. Thank you very much., You are a good writer.
In addition to art that will give you good
I congratulate you
Writing is an art that everyone does it. Congratulate you for having this art.

Like

8. Thank you very much., You are a good writer.
In addition to art that will give you good
I congratulate you

Like

9. Great post! I am actually getting ready to across this information, is very helpful my friend. Also great blog here with all of the valuable information you have. Keep up the good work you are doing here.

Like

10. Ciao, io amo la lettura attraverso il tuo blog, ho voluto lasciare un piccolo commento per sostenere voi e vi auguro una buona continuazione. Vi auguro buona fortuna per tutti i vostri sforzi blogging.

Like

11. Hi,

the two files are no longer hosted on the server? actuary.py and actuary.py.txt are missing :S

Regards,
Gabriel

Like

12. Very good.

Like

13. Good text, I had a lot of fun when reading. Keep it up!

Like

14. Why not write a python script to calculate the probablity of death of the remaining members of Monty Python?

Like

15. wonderful information,Thanks a ton once again, Regards, Ramcharan

Like

16. Thank you very much., You are a good writer.

Like

17. Thank you very much., You are a good writer.
In addition to art that will give you good
I congratulate you

Like

18. This is a amazing publish ! it was very useful. I look ahead in studying more of your perform. Also, I made sure to save your web page so I can come returning later. I experienced every moment of studying it.

Like

19. I think the two files aren’t hosted anymore (it throws a 404). Could you fix that?

Like

20. Esta genial, estas si son buenas ideas.

Like

21. For example, I’d think former jet pilots are more likely to be in excellent health—and have long lifestyle expectancies—than the relax of us.

Like

22. Much of the coaching is in accordance with the industry’s before encounter with low-lead condition rules already in position in Florida, Vermont, Doctor and La.

Like

23. Estoy muy impresionado con sus habilidades de escritura tan elegante como con la estructura de su blog.

Like

24. I don’t know if you will read this but I was reading the comments and saw how many bots / spammers there were that posted here. Depressed by this I decided to write this comment to let you know that I am a flesh and blood human who enjoys your work.

I’m going to enjoy some Spring and the future, and possibly a sandwich.

Like

25. McAdams apprenticed with Mike Gilbert and the Elegant Stockholm Philharmonic.

Like

26. This site is very great and indispensable to my thank you to expect continued success with the authorities there are millions of people come easy memlunkalan but I guess I did not bring the language

Like

27. She covers the dos and donts of getting a good night’s sleep and presents it in easily accessible language. Really worth a listen if you have ever had trouble falling, and staying, asleep.

Like

28. This site is very great and indispensable to my thank you to expect continued success with the authorities there are millions of people come easy memlunkalan but I guess I did not bring the language click here

Like

29. evden eve tasima

Like

30. Griffith considers the strikes are divisive and have no position in the discussion because they are unrelated to the important points and the law. Form 990n and

Like

31. Thank you so much for this. I work a company where I need to get my daily targets everyday. It is hard work. next story

Like

32. Claire Casey Capture His Heart PDF book and lasting commitment program that teaches you how to “flip the switch” in a man’s mind that makes him fall madly in love, give you his total commitment. online videothek vergleich

Like

Like

34. That manipulated understanding appeared beginning on in this situation when Astrida Lemkins — Nunn’s former lawyer — distributed this perspective with the Lexington Herald-Leader: “(The household attack order) triggered Bob Nunn to reduce his job, popularity and forced him to cunt his wrists. buy youtube views and likes

Like

35. Questo argomento è sempre stato uno dei miei soggetti preferiti da leggere su. Ho trovato il tuo post per essere molto eccitante e pieno di buone informazioni. Controllerò gli altri articoli poco. godaddy hosting promo code

Like

36. Listo para a través de esta información, es muy útil a mi amigo. También gran blog aquí con toda la información valiosa que tiene.

Like