For the handful of hurricane geeks out there

Selections from lost NHC discussion bulletins:



HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS DETERMINED...BASED ON RECON
AND MODEL GUIDANCE...THAT "HUMBERTO" IS A RIDICULOUS NAME FOR
A HURRICANE. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED CONCERNING
THIS STORM...UNTIL A MORE SERIOUS NAME IS CHOSEN.

$$ FORECASTER BLYTHE


HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003

FORECASTER AVILA CONTINUES TO INSIST...DESPITE ALL RECON
EVIDENCE...THAT IT WAS NOT HE WHO TOOK MY SANDWICH FROM THE
NHC FRIDGE. THIS ASSERTION IS NOT SUPPORTED BY FORECASTER
STEWART OR MY STATISTICAL MODELS...AND BASED ON THE TIGHT
CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE...I AM ISSUING A WARNING FOR FORECASTER
AVILA...THAT HE HAD BETTER BRING HIS OWN LUNCH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL BE THE LAST WARNING ISSUED FOR FORECASTER AVILA.

$$ FORECASTER JACOBS


HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 1998

THIS IS JUST TO SAY...THAT THE STORM IN THE ATLANTIC...WHICH
WE NAMED JEANNE...IS STRENGTHENING. IT HAS A DISTINCT EYE...
LIKE A WOMAN...AND GOOD PRESENTATION ON RADAR. THIS IS ALSO
TO SAY...THAT ADVISORIES MAY BE ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...WHERE A
DRYING FISH...RESTS ON A BEACH...BESIDE THE COCONUT PALMS.

$$ FORECASTER CARLOS WILLIAMS


TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 59
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IVAN COULD NOT BE LOCATED BY RECON...AND THE PRESENTATION IS
POOR TO ABSENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT SEEMS SAFE TO ASSUME
THAT...BARRING RENEWED CONVECTION ...THE CYCLONE HAS DISSAP--
...OH GOD...HE IS HERE...IVAN IS HERE IN THE OFFICE...EVERYONE
GET DOWN OH GOD HE IS INTENSIFYLKSDJFLKHHALKJKL...

$$ FORECASTER PRESCOTT


HURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 03 2002

HEY GUYS...I WAS JUST WONDERING...IF YOU EVER THINK ABOUT
THINGS. LIKE...YOU KNOW...WHETHER IT IS ALL WORTH IT.

$$ FORECASTER FREDERICK


TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005

THE WMO HAS DETERMINED THAT...DUE TO THE EXTREME DESTRUCTION
CAUSED BY THIS HURRICANE...THE NAME "NEW ORLEANS" WILL BE
REMOVED FROM THE LIST OF CITY NAMES...AND NOT USED FOR ANY
FUTURE AMERICAN CITY.

$$ FORECASTER SCHOEN


HURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2002

HURRICANE ISIDORE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...AND MOVE TOWARD
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HOWEVER...THE NHC WOULD LIKE TO REMIND
EVERYONE IN THE AFFECTED AREA THAT THE REAL STORM...IS INSIDE
US ALL.

$$ FORECASTER ANDERSON

136 thoughts on “For the handful of hurricane geeks out there

  1. Hee, hee, hee. Since I live in New Orleans, I’m frequently glued to those stupid issuances. About time someone lampooned them properly.

  2. I must say, this is a new one and it made me laugh.

    “NO 96-HOUR POINT IS BEING GIVEN BECAUSE FORECAST POINTS IN THE
    EASTERN HEMISPHERE BREAK A LOT OF SOFTWARE.”

  3. I’m glad Mark Schleifstein has weighed in. What he doesn’t mention is that he’s an award-winning environmental reporter for the New Orleans Times-Picayune and co-author, with John McQuaid, of Path of Destruction, a well-written and authoritative book on Katrina and the flooding of New Orleans by the United States Army Corps of Engineers.

    I’ve never personally met the gentleman but I can highly recommend his book and other work.

  4. I always thought that the ellipses in these things were used in place of any punctuation except for periods (commas, dashes, etc.), but that doesn’t seem to be how Randall used them. Does anyone actually know how they work?

  5. Where are all the jokes about pre-natal depression I was hoping for? Come on internet, it’s right there.

  6. This is amazing, I loved the one about the statistical models based on a stolen sandwich. My stats prof. would probably dedicate twenty minutes to that topic!

  7. I also once saw James Franklin use a Rocky Horror reference in a discussion (regarding the path of the storm taking a jump to the left, and then a step to the right). Wish I could remember which storm it was so I could pull it out of the archives.

    I’ve had the pleasure of meeting the forecasters over the years I’ve been a Hurricane Hunter. All are true professionals, and I’m glad they can slip some humor in every once in a while to let off some steam. I was at NHC the week that Isabelle came ashore back in 2003, and it was an absolute madhouse with reporters and camera crews all over the place. Yet the forecasts went out like clockwork. It’s an incredibly difficult job, and my hat goes off to all of them.

  8. “HURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
    11 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2002

    HURRICANE ISIDORE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN…AND MOVE TOWARD
    THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HOWEVER…THE NHC WOULD LIKE TO REMIND
    EVERYONE IN THE AFFECTED AREA THAT THE REAL STORM…IS INSIDE
    US ALL.

    $$ FORECASTER ANDERSON”

    And wouldn’t the Center of the Cyclone be determined by ‘$$ FORECASTER LILLY’

  9. There is considerably buzz in regards to the forthcoming Superman reboot, The Man of Steel which will be directed by Zack Snyder and hit screens in 2013. It’s still a number of way off in spite of this Superman has at all times had the ability to acquire the geeks, nerds and fanboys, of which I am one, in a spin. And so on this post, a single weblog entry, we can turn you into an Instant Superman skilled. Jesus Christ said it perfect in John 15:18-19: “If the sector hates you, you already know that it hated Me just before it hated you. The believer in Jesus Christ is an individual who formerly lived on this world in a fallen nature if this world was once star wars we would be serving under Darth Vader.

  10. I clearly have not been paying enough attention to the discussions. I shall rectify this forthwith! ;-)

  11. Wait. I thought Jeanne was in 2004, right after Ivan? I was in Florida for it. Actually, I was there for Charlie, Frances, Ivan, *and* Jeanne, and I was only in Florida six weeks.

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  13. I remember Lili and Isidore! School was closed on Thursday for Isidore then we got the next Thursday off for Lili. Kind of screwed with everyone’s internal calendars.. Lili was suppose to be “The Storm”. She was Cat 5 right off the coast and headed straight for New Orleans but she fell apart in record time (literally I believe, she set a record) and left the title for Katrina to claim a few years later.

  14. Is it sad that I didn’t realize this was a joke for a few minutes? Having read a few advisories back in 2005 when the forecasters got punchy (Hurricane Epsilon is actually amusing to read through because the storm just Would Not Die even though the models kept forecasting its dissipation). The Hurricane Ivan bit sounds like something I could see getting sent out in that particular environment.

  15. Re: order of the hurricanes — you are correct.
    Ivan flooded my apartment terribly!! I came back and there was fish in the water. Fish! swimming around… ewww!

  16. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al292005.discus.032.shtml?

    ACTUAL advisory:

    ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
    HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    4 AM EST WED DEC 07 2005

    THE END IS IN SIGHT…YES…BUT NOT QUITE YET. I THOUGHT I WAS GOING
    TO FIND A WEAKENING SYSTEM AND INSTEAD I FOUND THAT EPSILON IS
    STILL A HURRICANE. AS IT HAS DONE EVERY MORNING…THE CONVECTION
    HAS REDEVELOPED AROUND THE LARGE AND DISTINCT EYE….KICKING THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS BACK UP AGAIN. ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT HURRICANE INTENSITY.

  17. Sometimes life is stranger than fiction. I remember telling an American friend that a few years ago Cyclone Larry destroyed 90% of our banana crop, and he couldn’t stop laughing. When I pointed out that paying upwards of $3 for a single banana at a supermarket was no laughing matter, he said to me “Come on! Cyclone LARRY destroyed our BANANAS??! It sounds like something out of a cartoon!” And I had to agree with him.

  18. Not a hurricane, since our 60+ mph Pacific winds don’t get called that, but….

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
    535 AM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

    .AVALANCHE…PERFECT STORM OF AVALANCHE CONDITIONS UNFOLDING TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH ABUNDANT VERY WEAK SNOW LAYERS DEPOSITED SINCE PREVIOUS RAIN EVENT LAST WEDNESDAY NOW BEING STRESSED BY INCREASINGLY HEAVY SNOW OR RAIN…RISING FREEZING LEVELS…AND VERY STRONG WINDS. ADD IN SOME VERY WEAK FACETED SNOW NEAR THE GROUND AND THIS SPELLS DANGER IN ALL CAPS. INCREASING NATURAL ACTIVITY REPORTED YESTERDAY DURING COLDER SNOWFALL JUST A WARMUP FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HIGH TO EXTREME DANGER INCREASING. MUCH SAFER IN THE MALLS AND BETTER FOR THE ECONOMY TOO. NO TIME TO BE RECREATING IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOORE

  19. I read this post like 50 times now, it always makes me laugh.
    Especially the part with the sandwich, that is so funny I can’t sit straight reading it.

  20. To Warren Madden
    RE: on September 23, 2011 at 2:02 am said:

    “I also once saw James Franklin use a Rocky Horror reference in a discussion (regarding the path of the storm taking a jump to the left, and then a step to the right). Wish I could remember which storm it was so I could pull it out of the archives”

    I had to search this when I read your comment, and my friend was able to produce a miracle: TS Matthew from October 2004: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/dis/al142004.discus.006.shtml

  21. Saw this gem today…

    ======
    Kirk is not expected to live long and Prosper. Visible satellite
    images and a 1214 UTC ascat pass indicate that the system still has
    a closed circulation but it is becoming elongated. Maximum
    reliable winds in the ascat pass were around 45 kt so the initial
    wind speed is held at that value. Kirk will likely become
    Post-tropical later today or dissipate just before it merges with a
    front that is currently located about 200 N mi to its west.

    Conventional satellite and microwave data indicate that Kirk has
    been moving a little to the left of the previous track…with the
    latest initial motion estimate being a very fast 035/32. An even
    faster northeastward motion is forecast until the cyclone becomes
    absorbed by the front tonight or early Monday.

    The 34-kt wind radii were modified based on the aforementioned ascat
    pass.

    Forecast positions and Max winds

    init 02/1500z 46.2n 36.5w 45 kt 50 mph
    12h 03/0000z 51.1n 30.1w 45 kt 50 mph…Post-tropical
    24h 03/1200z…dissipated

    $$
    forecaster cangialosi

    Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201211.disc.html#AYYPES5davK5rqe5.99

  22. The actual discussion #005 on Jeanne was almost as funny:

    JEANNE HAS DEVELOPED AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THIS IS
    EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE CYCLONE NEARS PUERTO RICO. THIS
    OUTFLOW PATTERN…COMBINED WITH NEARLY 29C SSTS AND A VERY TIGHT
    INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AS NOTED IN THE RECON DATA…SHOULD ALLOW
    JEANNE TO POSSIBLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES
    PUERTO RICO. AFTER THAT…CLOSE PROXIMITY TO HISPANIOLA SHOULD
    INHIBIT STRENGTHENING UNTIL AFTER 72 HOURS…WHEN JEANNE IS
    FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA…AND NORTHERLY VERTICAL
    SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME EASTERLY IN DIRECTION.

    FORECASTER STEWART

  23. Wow… This site has made me realise how much importance capitalization has on my understanding of written speech…

    Can’t help it but picture a Dalek speaking.

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